January 1981:letters

Soviet Space Puzzles

Sir, During the past two years there has been much speculation on certain mysterious Cosmos missions, apparently related to the Soviet manned space programme. The whole topic is based on very few facts and the correct combination of the pieces of the puzzle is not yet clear. It may be helpful to summarize the relevant Cosmos flights and their probable relationship to manned missions. Included in the list are some Soyuz and Progress missions concerning development work on manned vehicles.

(Key: C=Cosmos, S=Soyuz, P=Progress; R=object was

recovered).

Lifetime

Explanation of the mission

Object

Launcher

Launch date (days)

C.613

A-1

30.11.1973

60 R

Long-duration test flight of Soyuz.

S.18B

A-2

24.5.1975

63 R

Soyuz/Salyut long-duration flight.

C.772

A-2

29.9.1975

3 R

Test for extended independent flight of Soyuz.

S.20

A-2

17.11.1975

91 R.

Soyuz/Salyut long-duration test, two-day rendezvous.

C.869

A-2

29.11.1976

18 R

Progress test or 3-man (4/3/3) Soyuz test (unmanned).

C.881/ 882

D-1

15.12.1976

<1 R?

Kosmolyot (shuttle) test?

<1 R?

C.929

D-1

17.7.1977

200/30R

Refuelling test or space-tug test.

Salyut 6

D-1

29.9.1977

in orbit

Orbital laboratory.

P.1

A-2

20.1.1978

19

Supply ferry for Salyut 6

20.3.1978

Av. W. & Space Tech,reported drop-tests of delta-winged vehicle from Tu-95 aircraft.

C.997/998

D-1

30.3.1978

<1 R?

Kosmolyot test?

<1 R?

C.1001

A-2

4.4.1978

11 R

Long-duration Soyuz test

8.1.1979

Av. W. & Space Tech reported construction of long runway at Tyuratam.

C.1074

A-2

31.1.1979

60 R

Probably a long duration test of a new Soyuz (4/3/3) variant.

C.1100/1101

D-1

23.5.1979

1 R?

Kosmolyot test?

1 R?

Sept/Oct 1979

Continuing rumours that the Kosmolyot mini-shuttle will probably be ready for manned flights in 1980.

From the table we see that there is a clear division of the missions into two sets, the first being launched by the A-2 and the second by the D-1. With a maximum payload of about 7200 kg for the A-2, these tests are clearly related to Soyuz and Progress development work. It seems rather improbable that a Kosmolyot-vehicle with a mass of only about 7 tonnes can be constructed or will have an interesting man- and/orpayload-carrying capability. (In the CNES study for a mini-shuttle, “Hermes”, a mass of 9.5 tonnes was estimated as necessary). A very interesting mission using the A-2 was the flight of Cosmos 1074. As in the case of Cosmos 613, a vehicle was tested in orbit for 60 days. Because this mission was conducted after successful Progress flights, a long duration test of a cargo craft is improbable and would not be very useful,since the Progress is not able to return to Earth. Based on this assumption, it appears to me that a new version of Soyuz,probably the (4/3/3) variant, was tested. If this is correct and if the test was successful (it seems that it was), this new Soyuz variant may be used in the near future.

Explanations for the nature of the Cosmos missions using the D-1 launcher are far more speculative.

Concerning the mission of Cosmos 929, a broad variety of opinions were printed in Spaceflight, including my own speculations. I think now that the ideas of Mr. R. F. Gibbons are probably correct. He wrote that the flight of Cosmos 929 was connected with a refuelling test in orbit using a stripped down Salyut and a Progress craft. The speculations derived from significant orbit changes of Cosmos 929 became more improbable last year. A Progress craft made a major orbit change of the Progress-Salyut-Soyuz-complex to 399x411 km.

The most obscure missions are the dual payloads C.881/882,C.997/998 and C.1100/1101. For all three, the lifetime in orbit was very short, the vehicles being deorbited after one or only a few revolutions. Two points are not clear in in this context: (a) was there only one orbit or was there a progressive sequence in the number of orbits? (b) Is it certain that all the vehicles were returned to Earth or was possibly only one craft returned on each mission, and the other one burned up in the atmosphere? The answers are probably crucial for solving the mystery.

Despite these questions, I am inclined to connect these missions with the Kosmolyot development programme. In an Austrian newspaper,there is a report of an interview with Prof.Hermann Kolle. The reporter. Dr. Hofstadter, wrote that a Kosmolyot-vehicle will make a manned test flight, very probably next year. This delta-winged craft has a wing-span of about 15 metres and is much shorter than the US shuttle. (This implies a sort of enlarged Dyna-Soar). The craft has only a small payload bay; it may be able to transport four (or even six) people and will be orbited with an expendable launcher (probably the D-1). The report states that cosmonaut Georgi M Grechko explained that a craft similar to the US Space Shuttle will not be used in the near future because such a vehicle would become economical only if 20 to 30 missions were flown per year, and that was not useful in connection with the Soviet space station programme.

From all these facts and speculations, I would make the following (speculative) conclusions:

1. There is a Soviet development programme for a small reusable craft, the Kosmolyot. Manned test flights may begin in 1981.

2. A new Soyuz variant, probably the (4/3/3) version for a crew of three, was tested in the last two years. It may emerge as a manned craft very soon, possibly in the next manned flight.

3. At first glance, it seems doubtful that the USSR is developing at the same time a new Soyuz variant and a (small) reusable craft, but there are some important circumstances to remember.

The technology of Soyuz-type vehicles is well proven; for a new variant there are no new problems regarding the reentry sequence. The development costs are relatively low and the craft can be launched with the relatively cheap A-2 launcher. On the other hand, the development of the Kosmolyot involves new technology, a difficult reentry sequence and the necessity to use the D-1 launcher. Manned test flights with the Kosmolyot will probably cover some years before it will become operational. If in this period an extended Salyut programme is conducted, a bigger crew of the Soyuz may be necessary. Using modified Soyuz and Progress vehicles, a vigorous Salyut programme can be carried out, totally independent of the Kosmolyot programme.